Conflicting weather forecast- louisiana

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PMDavid
Posts: 531
Joined: Wed May 16, 2018 8:50 pm
Location: Boyce,Louisiana
Martin Colony History: 2018 1 lone nut and lots of visitors
2019 6 pair -21fledged
2020 18 pair -60 fledged
2021......to be seen.
24 natural gourds on a satellite rack,9 other gourds scattered around
2-12 compartment trio houses
Rarely see a sparrow or starling,but when I do they don’t last long!
Will have a second satellite rack for the 2022 season and phase out the houses,the martins here strongly prefer natural gourds.

So as the approaching cold weather will be here mid week I’m seeing conflicting reports for nighttime temps. The difference in the temps is the possible difference of life or death for the birds. I’m seeing as follows......
Local channel 5 shows....
Thur. 29. Fri 15. Sat 20. Sun 27 Nighttime lows ,low 40’s daytime
The weather channel shows..
Thur. 38. Fri 33. Sat 30. Sun 28 nighttime lows ,with daytime low to nearly mid 40’s
So which is it I wonder? Somebody has their wires crossed here.
Stacy B.
Posts: 28
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:04 am
Location: Leroy, Louisiana
Martin Colony History: 2018- visitors only
2019- 8 pair, fledged 32
2020- 18 pair, fledged 91
2021-
Also host 1 pair of bluebirds and barn swallows
Every year. Avg. 3-5 fledglings each annually.

Pm David,
I noticed that too. I'm further south than you are (Lafayette, La. Area) and the local weather has backed off on their previous forecast. I hope the new numbers are accurate for me, with lows around 28° and a better rebound during the day with highs mid 40's - 50°.
I read you just got a few birds in. Sending you well wishes and good luck with the cold temps.
Stacy B.
PMDavid
Posts: 531
Joined: Wed May 16, 2018 8:50 pm
Location: Boyce,Louisiana
Martin Colony History: 2018 1 lone nut and lots of visitors
2019 6 pair -21fledged
2020 18 pair -60 fledged
2021......to be seen.
24 natural gourds on a satellite rack,9 other gourds scattered around
2-12 compartment trio houses
Rarely see a sparrow or starling,but when I do they don’t last long!
Will have a second satellite rack for the 2022 season and phase out the houses,the martins here strongly prefer natural gourds.

Thanks Stacey, I asked about the location of Leroy because there is a Leroy up in north la. An area I used to go hunt. I’m hoping the weather channel has got the right numbers as opposed to the local channel. 10+ degrees is a big difference ,one that could be more survivable for the birds.
Whippy
Posts: 807
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:15 pm
Location: Plano, Texas
Martin Colony History: See Signature

I'm seeing the same here in North Texas. Wy wife and I went back and forth about temperatures as we looked at different feeds.

In any case. My son has a baseball tournament this weekend starting on Thursday so I used that as an excuse to load up on hand warmers. A pack of 10 pairs cost $9.99. They won't be on the shelf after Wednesday with all the youth sports here in town. This is also the time of year when the stores are changing from cold to warm weather so they don't order stuff to keep you warm any more. Once these hand warmers are gone you'll be looking for them on the internet.

If you use them in the gourds like I do you might want to wonder over to your local big box store.

Hope it doesn't get too bad for you guys down there.

Coolwhips.
2016 - late to put up, many visitors
2017 - 1 pair, 3 fledged
2018- 2 pair, 12 fledged
2019 - 4 pair, 21 fledged
2020 - 15 pair, 67 fledged
DBH
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:51 pm
Location: Bossier City Louisiana
Martin Colony History: 2020 first year: 2 pair, 9 eggs, 6 fledged
2021:

I don’t have any birds yet thank goodness and my parents colony doesn’t either they usually get birds the first week of February. I’m in northwest la near Shreveport and the weather looks bad here. Thurs low is 28, Friday 22, Saturday 27, Sunday 26, Monday 29. That’s in the city and normally the actual temp is 3-4 degrees colder where I live. Every high for those days is 40 degrees and cloudy. Hoping my birds hold off but I will be preparing just in case. Started my colony last year and would hate for them to show up and lose them to weather.
dsonyay
Posts: 1250
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 3:10 pm
Location: Louisiana/Broussard
Martin Colony History: 2010-2014 located in Slidell LA. Gourd rack with 16 gourds. Max of 2 pairs during this short period in Slidell. Plenty of fledglings.

2014-present.. moved to Broussard LA. Same Gourd Rack but added a 6 room house (modified from a 12 room)

2020: after a long drought of nothing, 4 pairs and 4 nests, 23 eggs total (May2020)

It appears the really cold weather won’t happen in the Lafayette area. I live in Broussard and the forecasted 20 degree weather and snow for Saturday has been replaced with typical mid 30s temps for lows and low 50s for highs


I’m a retired weather forecaster and was quite surprised to see those type temps and frozen precip for mid Feb this far south. But this was a long range forecast and I don’t count on accuracy very much beyond 72hrs.

I for one am glad that forecast busted for Lafayette area
PMDavid
Posts: 531
Joined: Wed May 16, 2018 8:50 pm
Location: Boyce,Louisiana
Martin Colony History: 2018 1 lone nut and lots of visitors
2019 6 pair -21fledged
2020 18 pair -60 fledged
2021......to be seen.
24 natural gourds on a satellite rack,9 other gourds scattered around
2-12 compartment trio houses
Rarely see a sparrow or starling,but when I do they don’t last long!
Will have a second satellite rack for the 2022 season and phase out the houses,the martins here strongly prefer natural gourds.

Hi Sonya.... man I’m hoping that the weather channel has got it and not our local one . Although ole Tom konvica is usually pretty on he’s a smart meteorologist. Maybe the national guys have it better pegged and he just hast modified his yet. Keepin an eye on it all. I did go get a 10 pr pk of warmers so may be able to help em.
brent
Posts: 375
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:43 pm
Location: Raceland, Louisiana

That's good news. I'm getting new arrivals and don't need cold freezing temperatures. Have hand warmers just in case. Witnessed my first battle for a compartment this season. Thought they were going to kill each other. They need to learn to get along.🙂
Brent
dsonyay
Posts: 1250
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 3:10 pm
Location: Louisiana/Broussard
Martin Colony History: 2010-2014 located in Slidell LA. Gourd rack with 16 gourds. Max of 2 pairs during this short period in Slidell. Plenty of fledglings.

2014-present.. moved to Broussard LA. Same Gourd Rack but added a 6 room house (modified from a 12 room)

2020: after a long drought of nothing, 4 pairs and 4 nests, 23 eggs total (May2020)

Fingers crossed.

Now that I’m retired, I don't pay much attention to the weather.

For a while I’d download my own data, analyze everything then figure out the weather myself.. but that got kind of old, especially when I’m not getting paid to do it anymore lol

You guys up in N La will likely get some much colder weather than we will along I-10 corridor, but we’re still gonna get a couple cold mornings..just not the lower 20s it appears. Highs will get to low 50s so that’ll help the little guys out. They’re pretty tough.
dsonyay
Posts: 1250
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 3:10 pm
Location: Louisiana/Broussard
Martin Colony History: 2010-2014 located in Slidell LA. Gourd rack with 16 gourds. Max of 2 pairs during this short period in Slidell. Plenty of fledglings.

2014-present.. moved to Broussard LA. Same Gourd Rack but added a 6 room house (modified from a 12 room)

2020: after a long drought of nothing, 4 pairs and 4 nests, 23 eggs total (May2020)

Checked weather this morning... keeps getting modified on the long range forecasts. Sat Sun will be pretty cold in the A.m. even lafayette area will get the chills. By wed.. the weekend forecast should be pretty firm
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